Betfair Tennis trading – Profit graphs

Betfair Tennis trading – Profit graphs


so there’s something that I do arm
tennis matches that allows me to trade them more effectively into C key points
within a match and I think I may have snuck one of these in on a video at some
point in the past but I thought it was about time that I talked about exactly
what I do and how it can help you trade a tennis match please like and comment
on the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more
of them in the future if you’re interested in learning to trade
successfully in sports then why not visit the BET angel’ Academy where we
have more detailed videos so one of the things that I do when I’m trading tennis
is I get bet angel’ using the export P&L reports to monitor how a particular
position is going and I do this in a lot of markets actually but more
particularly in tennis because it illustrates very clearly where key
points are within a tennis match and how I could have trade any more effectively
you may have seen me tweet or blog how well something would have traded and the
reason that I do that is not to sort of say oh this is how much money you could
have made because that’s pretty obvious if you if you make a perfect trade but
it’s there to basically sort of say well this is interesting this is an
interesting moment an interesting point that occurred within this event or over
a series of events and I’ve done this in all my trading for as long as I can
possibly remember and it’s because I want to learn how to trade better so
what I do is I’ll trade a horserace I’ll trade a tennis match or I’ll do a
football match or I’ll do something in some event but while I’m doing it better
angel will actually monitor what’s going on within the market so I measure the
high point in the low point and what happened and all of those things but I
also do one other thing which is I get it to export how much profit I’ve made
at any one particular point within that match and then I can actually go back
and look and see where the key points were within that much and if I could
have improved it now often what I do as well as I’ll get betting jille and I
attempted to do this on the Australian Open tennis a lot I’ll go into bet angel
I’ll get it to place a bet for me as the match is due to start
and then it would just track what happens to that position from a training
perspective over the course of the entire match and that produces a thing
that I call a profit graph and the profit graph will allow me to analyze
and look at the match after it’s finished to tell me what I could have
done better within that match now the interesting
thing is that when you do this what you will find is that you’ll see the profit
swinging from one side to the other repeatedly over the course the match and
that’s a great characteristic a tennis user to get a get out of jail card in a
lot of matches repeatedly so even if you get your initial trade wrong as the
match progresses then it eventually turns into a profit because the match
swings one way or the other now of course there are a number of matches
where that never happens you start over here and then the price just plunges
away and never returns so when you’re actively trading tennis what you tend to
find is that you get some good matches where you get many opportunities to
trade in and out of a particular position and then you’ll get a match
where it just doesn’t work and when it just doesn’t work I’d shrug my shoulders
and just go well it didn’t work but I know that I will get back more profit
than that on another match at some particular point now rather than try and
describe to you to camera exactly what a profiting graph is and what it does I
thought it would be better to actually look at one and then actually describe
what you’re looking at within that particular chart but it’s something that
I do repeatedly when I gather data on a match I’ve gathered data on our dinner
how many tens of thousands probably hundreds of thousands of matches I’ve
done this on and it allows me to look back at a match and figure out where our
key point is in the match and what I should have done and how I could have
anticipated it and that’s how I picked up and what I need to do during a tennis
match so anyhow let’s have a look at
Graff so here’s a profit graph of a match between Peng and Wozniacki and
I’ll explain what you’re looking at on this that particular screen so let me
draw a line first so over on the left hand side here you can see this is
obviously the start of the match because the profit and loss is zero and then
excuse me over on the right hand side of here is at the end of the match so you
can see here that was near key lost this match because it ended up at minus 100
so you can also see that we were trading with a 100 pound stake on this
particular example so I probably wasn’t trading this market I was just put a
hundred pound stake in just to see what happens and then to get the results out
of the back end of here but if we draw a line across at zero you can see
approximately that this is the baseline this is where you would make neither a
prophet nor a loss on this particular occasion and as a consequence this would
be the sort of medium line where the match I mean that’s not particularly
straight there let me redo that again there we go that’s a bit better this is
the line where you would make neither a prophet nor a loss at any one particular
point and when you look at this particular match you can see that there
are a couple of obvious moments that occurred within here so you can see the
way that the market is going up and down at any individual point and these are
obviously the key points that occurred within the match but essentially what
you’re saying is that if you look at the match from a trading perspective you’re
effectively saying that anything above the line here if we just sort of shade
to this in temporarily over here is some a position that necessarily is favorable
to Wozniacki so you can see we can color those bits in and we can say that if we
backed Wozniacki at this particular point these would be moments at which
the match would be favorable for her if we had a
trading position on her those are the points in which the match would be
favorable and if we back to Peng or late was knee a key you can see these are the
points within the match where it was favorable for a profit on paying so you
can also see from there that obviously the way the match progressed and you can
check this for the stats and so on is that there’s a critical point within the
match here where their momentum swings from one player to the next but also if
you’re looking at the match from a number of perspectives I mean we can
break it down to a much narrower view in terms of what happens within the match
because if we look at this point here this would be a point at which was knee
a key was broken and then you can see was knee a key goes a break up here and
then it goes back to Peng breaks back and then wasn’t he actually breaks back
again Peng breaks back here Wozniacki runs away with it with the set there and
then you can see that it swings back completely the other way so if we count
the number of arrows who go got one two three four five six seven significant
swings there and then the the match swings back again in was new Yankees
favor at this particular point before finally swinging down and finishing with
a bit more certainty towards Peng so this this is why trading tennis is
interesting because if we backed or laid at the start here above that line means
that we would have profited if Wozniacki went to win so we’re saying anything
above the line here so it could be this point it could be that point it could be
any of these points over here or even this point over here any of these would
have produced a potential profit for us at some point if we would have banked
Wozniacki now if we were to back to Peng or late Wozniacki you can see we could
profited here here around this particular point here and then of course
she actually ended up winning the match as well so can you see this is why
tennis is appealing because it swings backwards and forwards repeatedly as
they try and head towards the end point over on the far side they’re all looking
to win the match but there’s many many different ways in which the match can
actually be won so when you look at these graphs it’s
very easy to sort of tally up where the key points within the market are and why
those particular points occurred and rather than just looking at it from a
profit above or below zero which we’re looking over here at the zero line this
is where we started with nothing and there was no profit on either side and
then the line obviously follows above that it’s perfectly possible he could
have traded it in a number of different ways he could have trade it on both
sides of it but you have to say that the possibility of getting each one of these
calls absolutely nailed on is probably unlikely however you can see that as the
match progressed we can draw points between all of the areas within the
match where the match swung one way or the other or there was a points within
the match where it looked likely that somebody was going to get broken in
serve or if you want to take it from an extreme you could just pick off the
extremes in each of these and sort of say well when we reach the first extreme
which would be a breakup or very likely to win the set then that may be the
point at which we reverse the position and take it back in the other direction
or it could be when we come off of a big point within the game and it swings back
the other way and goes back to parent again maybe that’s the point which you
decide to join but by looking at these graphs correlating it to score you get a
good feel and understanding of roughly where you need to be at any one
particular point in the match making broad calls in terms of when somebody’s
a break or a set up allows you to sort of benefit from a move that occurs in
between those individual points but also if the market starts to head back in the
other direction there’s no reason why you couldn’t catch it going the other
way so it’s a good sort of way of
illustrating where all of the key points are within a tennis market but it also
illustrates when we shade this area above or below the line that look at the
points at which we could shade where was knee a key was in the ascendancy and
where Peng was in the ascendancy you can actually see that there are lots of
opportunities within the market where you could have profited from on both
sides regardless of whatever your position was when you actually
looked at the market to start with and that’s more or less the appeal of
trading the fact that if you pick the right match then you will get loads of
these swings and loads of opportunities to profit as the match goes one way or
the other and typically you tend to be looking at WTA matches you tend to be
looking at women’s matches for this to occur and typically you attend to look
at competitive matches as well because this sort of volatility that you’re
seeing if we look at the range of volatility here excluding the final
score you can see that it was pretty wide you could have caught a big swing
in both directions on both players at one particular point now obviously there
are going to be matches where the graph just sort of does something like that or
perhaps it deviates briefly before heading back down but part of the skill
of trading tennis is picking matches where this is less likely and matches
where you expect to see how much wider swing in terms of volatility but anyhow
this is how I tend to analyze matches after they’ve occurred is I’ll get
better angels to look at a range of matches and this is how I refine entry
and exit points within tennis is to look at the profit graph and see where the
optimal moments to get involved in the market were

5 thoughts on “Betfair Tennis trading – Profit graphs

  1. Extremely exciting video about trading tennis. How do you collect the data from the tennis match? Is it in Bet Angel? If so, how?
    Thanks for a great video.

  2. I have to say, brilliant Peter! Finally somebody on YouTube giving some insight on trading graphs. This is a big part of my trading style and I have to watch day trading videos to get information that’s like this. LOTS more please.

  3. Hello peter. Did you start any paid online training course yet? I am a beginner and looking for a complete course on betfair trading. I have experience in financial market trading and want to try out sports industry. cheers

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